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3年内没有任何一家VR内容公司可以盈利?

游戏兵工厂新闻报道:

 

马上就要进入2017年了,在岁末年初之际,小编也化身高冷“科技范”,跟大家聊聊VR、AR、AI这些据说可以改变未来的“高科技”。

VR是英文Virtual Reality的缩写,意为“虚拟现实”;AR是Augmented Reality,即“增强现实”;AI是Artificial Intelligence,是我们通常所说的“人工智能”。它们被投资人视为2016年的风口,但蜂拥而入、跟进VR、AR、AI行业的创业公司,2016年过得还好吗?

据报道,国内首家AR公司已经倒闭,账上只剩7万元;9月开始,VR公司倒闭、转型、裁员的消息不断见诸媒体;当Alpha Go在“人机大战”中战胜世界围棋冠军李世石的狂欢声犹在耳畔时,谷歌主打AI的无人驾驶汽车和特斯拉的Autopilot(自动驾驶系统)却没“王婆”说的那么好。


近日,扎克伯格公开演示了其2016的作品,一个类似Jarvis的人工智能助手时,这位助手频频出错,扎克伯格略显尴尬地说:“喔,这应该是它最失败的表现了!”


一边是BAT三巨头积极布局涌入和资本疯狂VR、AR、AI,一边是新型创业公司不断裁员、倒闭和技术不成熟,“风口”的未来可以说一半是海水,一半是火焰。
20个月过把瘾就死?

[智东西Lina]:2014~2015年期间,VR这一新颖的概念首次出现,资本热情极高,一时间从新闻媒体到各大行业研究所,头条如出一辙,手机盒子遍地开花,催生了一大批追赶风口的同类公司。而到了2016年,尤其是2016年下半年,整个智能产业投资的盲目热情开始冷却下来,融资开始紧缩,再加之由于硬件技术的不成熟,消费级市场远未打开,创业公司在盲目扩张下出现财务困难,最严重的直接出现资金链断裂,董事长欠薪跑路。

鉴于行业不断出现的资金链断裂、公司倒闭事件,很多人开始看衰VR,认为其本就不该成为“风口”,但亦有行业人士认为,这只是第一波泡沫的破裂。

[暴风魔镜CEO黄晓杰]:任何一个行业发展起来,第一波都是需要一个资本泡沫的,这个核心是为了教育市场,促进整个技术的成熟,投资人他们赌的就是概率和未来,这没什么不好。
[声智科技合伙人、副总裁李智勇]:近来和AI各方面的人(创业者、投资人、科学家、媒体)接触下来,还没碰到任何一个人认为这次AI浪潮会冷到前两次那样。

[智东西Lina]:技术发展永远只会前进,不会倒退,可产业则不同:任何新型技术的市场化都要经历一个S型的先升、后降、最后回归理性的曲线波动。在发展期前期,资本必定大量涌入,产业泡沫涌现;随后温度迅速下降,马上由“风口”变“寒冬”,行业进入过度悲观期;直至最后技术发展日益成熟,第二甚至第三批企业崛起,市场趋向成熟与理性。也许20个月正是VR行业的周期规律,同时,它还有可能是整个智能行业的周期规律。

技术是成功的本钱

如何在各大资本勒紧口袋时熬过资本寒冬?可能技术突破才是唯一的钥匙。

[智东西 Lina]:大家口中的“寒冬”,大概指的是资本趋于理性,往日只要冠上VR就能获得融资的项目,如今至少还得存在真正的技术突破才能获得资本青睐。至于眼下这些在20个月里出现危机的VR创企们,是机遇下的偶然失败也好,是“魔咒”基因里的必然倒台也罢,总归是技术革新下的先行“烈士”们。但唯一可以预见的是,它们虽然是这批VR浪潮里第一批的牺牲品,但绝对不会是最后一批。

[创客总部合伙人李建军]:其实,大量的钱正在悄悄投入到关键技术和人身上。
[兰亭数字联合创始人、COO庄继顺]:VR行业并没有遇到根本性的困境,也就是没有市场前景,或者市场已经饱和,而是目前的产品没有办法满足市场的需求,另外硬件的价格也没有降到可以普及的程度。总之,就是还没有出现一款像iPhone那样的革命性产品。

不过,对于VR创业者而言,这难道不是机会吗——解决其中任何一个问题都可以飞黄腾达,谁能发明iPhone,谁就是乔布斯。

[科技媒体人孙永杰]:2016年VR之所以雷声大雨点小的主要原因,在于VR自身(硬件和软件等)并未形成良性循环,而并非之前业内预计的相关硬件(例如PC)没有准备好。

[李智勇]:AI落地点在语音交互、AR、自动驾驶,启动期可能是在3年左右,一是产品经过两个周期的优化会更加成熟;一个是计算能力、基础设施到那时也更加完善。

未来在哪里?

[Presence资本的创始人Amitt Mahajan]:第一批在VR领域收获大笔利润的依然会是游戏公司。

[Unity的VR/AR战略主管Tony Parisi]:游戏玩家永远是最先锋的那一批消费者,他们会是第一批购买最先进的硬件、享受最精致的VR体验的用户。
[庄继顺]:3年之内,我不认为任何一家VR内容公司可以盈利,这个行业需要经历很长时间的发展。今年初的那一波资本太猛了,那都不叫资本助力,完全叫催熟,让中国的VR公司过早扎入了商业化。去年(2015),大家把第一波产品拿出来,理论上讲,无论是硬件还是软件,都得迭代几次,才应该被商业化。可是资本直接把迭代期给阉割掉了。VR风口是被投资而非需求拱起来的,投资方面发生转向,风口自然难以为继,尤其是对于实力较弱的玩家。

[暴风科技CEO冯鑫]:从现在(2016年11月)开始往后,大概最多有12个月是VR竞争的窗口期,如果这12个月还没有一个明确大的竞争对手对我们产生正面的进攻,12个月之后,VR竞争窗口可能就关闭掉了。

[物灵科技联合创始人顾嘉唯]:下一波来自智能行业的机会一定是由技术革新带来的,包括三大类:第一类是可穿戴设备;第二类就是中间所有的硬件都变成机器人;第三类就是装着四个轮子的机器人——无人车。


尽管在2016年资本的疯狂投入后, VR、AR、AI创业公司的日子可能在2017年不再那么好过了,但如同“外卖+互联网”的“百团大战”,经历过大浪淘沙后,只有不多的公司不会倒下,剩下来的会是BAT等行业“垄断者”还是初生的“小牛犊”,那就待决战2017了。

 

声明:此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述


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